Our Latest Thoughts

There are very few conversations about the market these days that do not include a reflection over whether the US equity market is in a bubble. Recent market gyrations reflect the unease investors have as performance continues to be strong. This is despite mixed...

Investors have grappled with the question of currency allocation this year, triggered by the sharp depreciation of the dollar against most major currencies. While a sharp currency move is understandably a source of concern, we...

Market Repositioning in Response to Trade Policy Shifts In early March, we wrote a note highlighting the uncertainties and complexities arising from the Trump Administration’s trade policy intentions. Based on our analysis we increased our overweight to fixed income...

In early March, we wrote a note highlighting the uncertainties and complexities arising from the Trump Administration’s trade policy intentions. Based on our analysis we increased our overweight to fixed income by reducing equities. President Trump’s “Liberation Day”...

Since we established Parkview in 2011, we have often debated whether we should include gold in our standard asset allocation. We have not done so. I have always taken the view that because gold is an asset that does not generate a return, it is not possible to value...

I try to avoid writing about currencies. This isn’t because I find them uninteresting. Rather, it is because most currency discussions invariably involve taking a directional view.  Anyone familiar with exchange rate models, or the track record of professional...

The US economy has entered a period of heightened economic policy uncertainty.  Significant policy changes were anticipated under the Trump administration. This includes trade protectionism, finding ways to reduce government expenditure, and delivering on tax...

The past year has been one of positive surprises. Inflationary pressures were brought under control in most countries. US economic growth remained strong, exceeding most forecasts.  Equities and credit performed well. The outlook for the global landscape is far more...

As we head towards a very consequential US election next month, we are balancing our positioning between two opposing forces. The first is the strength of recent economic data. The second is the inevitable uncertainty that comes with a change in policies. Recent...

The US economy has defied all expectations over the past year.  A much-anticipated recession in 2023 never materialised. The economy accelerated in the last quarter of the year. So far in 2024, the economy appears to be growing at a healthy clip of 2.5%. Unemployment...

Sometimes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The past year has been confounding for most economists. Economic data and historical precedent suggested that a US recession was likely. Yet the year came to an end with continued strength in economic...

US debt ceiling discussions are a predictable feature of the policy-making process. The only uncertainty regarding the Treasury’s ability to continue meeting its cash obligations was timing: would it be July or August? As it turns out, the date is likely to be...