The Debt Ceiling is a Good Thing

The Debt Ceiling is a Good Thing

US debt ceiling discussions are a predictable feature of the policy-making process. The only uncertainty regarding the Treasury’s ability to continue meeting its cash obligations was timing: would it be July or August? As it turns out, the date is likely to be...
Who’s going to be left holding the dogs?

Who’s going to be left holding the dogs?

A friend of mine was often fond of asking “who is going to be left holding the dogs”? The “dogs” here were long-term US Treasury Bonds, and this question came up in every conversation about the likelihood of a rise of interest rates. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank...
Outlook 2023

Outlook 2023

As the new year begins, it is time to take stock of recent developments and look forward to what the year might bring. The past year has been far more eventful than any of us could have imagined at the end of 2021. It started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine....
Is China Investible?

Is China Investible?

This question keeps being asked by the media and asset managers. In the past year, the asset manager of one major US bank published a note asserting that “China is still investable”, while the investment banking arm of the same bank asserted that China is not. One...
When it rains, it pours.

When it rains, it pours.

Over the past few months, we had been expecting the major economies to head into a recession. We also expected that the impact of shocks to the global economy, including supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would begin to dissipate. Consequently,...