The Fed and inflation expectations

The Fed and inflation expectations

After almost a year of public debate, the Fed announced a subtle but important change to its monetary policy framework. Rather than targeting an inflation rate of 2%, the Fed will look to achieve an average inflation rate of 2% over time. This change appears simple at...
Reassessing our return expectations

Reassessing our return expectations

Equity market developments since the beginning of April have been confounding.  On the one hand, most of the worst predictions for the global economy have been confirmed, and most countries are in the midst of the worst economic contraction in a century.  On the other...
The consequences of fear

The consequences of fear

It’s not reasonable to expect finance professionals to turn into epidemiologists within a short period of time. Yet, this is precisely the challenge faced by every analyst in recent weeks. I will not feign competence. There are many possible scenarios for the...
Plus ça change?

Plus ça change?

The past year has been as rewarding for investors as it has been confounding for analysts.  While economic growth weakened to its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, both equity and fixed income markets performed well. Market valuations sent contradictory...