by Paul Hoenck | Oct 11, 2019 | Markets |
In a recent meeting with a London based fund manager, an investment case was made for a macro bet to be made on the secular shift towards fiscal expansion in one of the countries most famed for their discipline and steadfastness in this area, Germany. What was...
by Oussama Himani | Sep 24, 2019 | Markets |
At Parkview, we are finding it increasingly difficult to justify an allocation to “Emerging Markets” as an asset class (EM). This isn’t a tactical change in position, but a structural change of view. There are both positive and negative developments that lead us to...
by Oussama Himani | Jun 6, 2019 | Markets |
Since the beginning of the year we took the view that, despite blustering rhetoric, the US-China trade dispute would be resolved within weeks of its initial deadline. Our optimism was grossly misplaced. Developments over the past month have demonstrated that the...
by Oussama Himani | Apr 15, 2019 | Markets |
There are two certainties in economics. The first is that economic cycles exist: recessions eventually happen. The second is that economists are terrible at forecasting them. A recent study found that the IMF was able to forecast 5 out of nearly 470 past economic...
by Oussama Himani | Jan 18, 2019 | Markets |
In early December we argued that despite the increase in earnings, and the move in equity prices, the attractiveness of the equity market was somewhat ambiguous. While the earnings yield of equities increased through most of 2018, so did the return on cash, leaving...
by Oussama Himani | Nov 29, 2018 | Markets |
At the start of 2018, we argued that while the economic outlook was strong, the certainty of rising short-term interest rates will have implications for the relative valuation of all asset classes. This implied that for equity markets, P/E multiples will need to fall,...
