Trade Chaos

Trade Chaos

The US economy has entered a period of heightened economic policy uncertainty.  Significant policy changes were anticipated under the Trump administration. This includes trade protectionism, finding ways to reduce government expenditure, and delivering on tax...
A Complex Year Ahead

A Complex Year Ahead

The past year has been one of positive surprises. Inflationary pressures were brought under control in most countries. US economic growth remained strong, exceeding most forecasts.  Equities and credit performed well. The outlook for the global landscape is far more...
Will the election matter?

Will the election matter?

As we head towards a very consequential US election next month, we are balancing our positioning between two opposing forces. The first is the strength of recent economic data. The second is the inevitable uncertainty that comes with a change in policies. Recent...
When good news isn’t good

When good news isn’t good

The US economy has defied all expectations over the past year.  A much-anticipated recession in 2023 never materialised. The economy accelerated in the last quarter of the year. So far in 2024, the economy appears to be growing at a healthy clip of 2.5%. Unemployment...
Plus ça change…

Plus ça change…

Sometimes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The past year has been confounding for most economists. Economic data and historical precedent suggested that a US recession was likely. Yet the year came to an end with continued strength in economic...
The Debt Ceiling is a Good Thing

The Debt Ceiling is a Good Thing

US debt ceiling discussions are a predictable feature of the policy-making process. The only uncertainty regarding the Treasury’s ability to continue meeting its cash obligations was timing: would it be July or August? As it turns out, the date is likely to be...